News Flash 522: Weekly Snapshot of Public Health Challenges

News Flash Links, as part of the research project PEAH (Policies for Equitable Access to Health), aim to focus on the latest challenges by trade and governments rules to equitable access to health in resource-limited settings

Saddled Seabream (Oblada Melanura)

News Flash 522

Weekly Snapshot of Public Health Challenges

 

Public health and politics–strange bedfellows?

HRR 673: THE VALUES AND PRINCIPLES OF ALMA ATA AND THE RIGHT TO HEALTH HAVE BEEN OMITTED OR DISTORTED OVER THE PAST 40+ YEARS

People’s Health Dispatch: The struggle for health goes on: World Health Day special

How WHO Can Deliver On its Core Mission of Science, Knowledge, and Evidence

Public consultation is now open: Good Governance Practice for Research Institutions

IFIs need a well-defined role in global health

Rich countries worsening the debt crisis: World Bank chief economist

Rich countries increasingly the recipients of their own aid, according to OECD DAC data

BOOK: The Struggle for Health: Medicine and the politics of underdevelopment (2nd edn)

The road to Universal Health Coverage in Egypt: New expectations and hopes

McGill course: Pandemic Preparedness, Alert, and Response | June 12-14, 2023

Difficult Negotiations, But Countries Win More Time to Suggest Language to the Zero Draft, Fight Back Efforts to Slow Process [INB5 WRAP]

Pandemic Accord: MSF’s Comments on Equity Provisions in Zero Draft

New WHO-UNITAID briefing paper: Improving Access to Covid-19 Treatments

PLOS special issue: COVID-19 Pandemic and Global Mental Health

The COVID-19 pandemic and health-related quality of life across 13 high- and low-middle-income countries: A cross-sectional analysis

Effectiveness assessment of non-pharmaceutical interventions: lessons learned from the COVID-19 pandemic

Webinar registration: Malaria Policy Advisory Group Apr 18, 2023 09:00 AM
Apr 19, 2023 09:00 AM Time shows in Zurich

WHO Calls for Data Submission: Entomological data to allow comparative assessment of insecticide-treated nets and indoor residual spraying products Submission deadline May 1, 2023

Chlamydial and gonorrheal neglected sexually transmitted diseases among Pacific Islanders of the Western Pacific Region—A narrative review and call to action

Medical Product Alert N°3/2023: Falsified DEFITELIO (defibrotide sodium)

Accommodation with anticancer drug shortage: A Lebanese harmful solution

India’s social health activists are tackling cancer in rural communities

Medicines Patent Pool signs sublicences with Aurobindo, Cipla and Viatris to produce generic versions of ViiV Healthcare’s innovative long-acting HIV prevention medicine

Forgone Health Care Among Patients With Cardiovascular Disease  by Kirubel Workiye Gebretsadik

Superbugs Among Top 10 Threats to Whole Cycle of Life 

Why Singapore needs to shift the conversation around drugs

New report provides overview of clinical trial transparency laws worldwide

Health service use and costs among migrants in an irregular situation: Cross-sectional register-based study from a voluntary-based clinic

UN food agency says $800 million urgently needed for Afghanistan

Untangling breastfeeding woes in Indonesia’s remote islands

Call for emergency action to limit global temperature increases, restore biodiversity, and protect health

 

 

 

 

 

 

Forgone Health Care Among Patients With Cardiovascular Disease

Some insights here on the impact of forgone health care, including among patients with cardiovascular disease, at a time when many people around the world must make the difficult decision to forgo necessary medical care due to cost, which is especially difficult for those who live in low- to middle-income nations where the proportion of out-of-pocket spending can be significant

By Kirubel Workiye Gebretsadik

Medical Doctor, Ras Desta Damtew Memorial Hospital

Addis Ababa, Ethiopia  

Forgone Health Care Among Patients With Cardiovascular Disease

 

Forgone treatment is defined as the frequency of a person’s self-report of skipping out on medical care while they were ill and in need of it in the year before to the survey day (1). People who report forgoing medical care do not use medical services even when they believe they are necessary (2). Forgoing care is a significant factor in evaluating the effectiveness of the healthcare system because it highlights a discrepancy between the public’s perception of their need for care and their actual utilization. Lack of care can have a variety of negative effects, such as the advancement of an illness, increased usage of emergency rooms, “worrying,” and/or difficulties going about daily tasks (2,3). People who report forgoing care can be categorized into two groups: group (I) people who believe they need healthcare and a professional would confirm that need (both subjective and objective need) and group (II) people who believe they need healthcare but a professional would not confirm that need (subjective but not objective need). Both types of forgone care are of high relevance for the respective individuals, health care providers, and, eventually, the health care system. Reported forgone care points to impediments to healthcare utilization (2). According to a recent World Health Organization (WHO) report, the cost of healthcare has thrown roughly 100 million people worldwide into “severe poverty.” Many people around the world must make the difficult decision to forgo necessary medical care due to cost, which is especially difficult for those who live in low- to middle-income nations where the proportion of out-of-pocket spending can be significant (4).

Despite the expansion of affordable medication options and treatment options, high rates of morbidity, disability, and early death are linked to cardiovascular diseases. Despite the availability of treatment alternatives, the majority of cardiovascular disease patients had uncontrolled blood pressure and glucose level. Patients with chronic diseases showed considerably higher likelihoods of forgoing both outpatient and inpatient care due to their higher demand for healthcare services (5,6). Studies have identified forgone care and care delays as common causes of these hospitalizations for preventable cardiovascular illness, which are commonly characterized as those that might have been avoided with greater access to high-quality care (7).

Research on forgone care among patients with cardiovascular disease has mainly been carried out in the Europe, USA and Canada. Research from Africa is largely unavailable. One in six cardiovascular disease patients and 15% of diabetic patients in the United States, 45% of type 2 diabetic patients in Iran, and 21.4% of patients in Switzerland forgoing health care for different reasons. In a study done in USA more than 76% of those who delayed or forgo getting medical attention had one or more chronic illnesses, such as cancer, heart disease, diabetes, hypertension, respiratory problems, and mental health issues (3). One in three (32.6%) adults who delayed or forgo getting medical care said it made one or more of their conditions worse or made it harder for them to work or do other daily tasks. Since many patients with chronic conditions need on going care, these persons and their families can incur high out-of-pocket medical expenses and run the risk of forgoing necessary treatments (11).  A higher risk of forgone treatment exists among some groups of people who lack health insurance, have low incomes, and have comorbidities (1,7,9,10). Despite the fact that many studies have been conducted in developed countries, there have been few studies conducted in developing countries about forgone care. A significant public health issue is identifying which individuals are forgoing medical appointments, as this information enables targeted interventions or the distribution of important messages to address this dropout and its effects. Previous research has associated delayed and forgone medical care with lower health outcomes and more expensive medical care, particularly in the older population (8).

 

References

  1. Jalilian H, Heydari S, Mir N, Fehresti S, Khodayari-Zarnaq R. Forgone care in patients with type 2 diabetes: a cross-sectional study. BMC Public Health. 2021 Aug 24;21(1):1588.
  2. Röttger J, Blümel M, Köppen J, Busse R. Forgone care among chronically ill patients in Germany—Results from a cross-sectional survey with 15,565 individuals. Health Policy [Internet]. 2016 Feb [cited 2022 Dec 22];120(2):170–8. Available from: https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0168851016000051
  3. Anderson KE, McGinty EE, Presskreischer R, Barry CL. Reports of Forgone Medical Care Among US Adults During the Initial Phase of the COVID-19 Pandemic. JAMA Netw Open [Internet]. 2021 Jan 21 [cited 2023 Feb 6];4(1): e2034882. Available from: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2775366
  4. Global Health Expenditure Database [Internet]. [cited 2023 Feb 6]. Available from: https://apps.who.int/nha/database/
  5. Oline BR, Pharm D. Hypertension: The Silent Killer. JNC-8. 2018;
  6. WHO, 2021 August 25. https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/hypertension
  7. Thomas A, Valero-Elizondo J, Khera R, Warraich HJ, Reinhardt SW, Ali HJ, et al. Forgone Medical Care Associated With Increased Health Care Costs Among the U.S. Heart Failure Population. JACC Heart Fail [Internet]. 2021 Oct [cited 2023 Jan 18];9(10):710–9. Available from: https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S2213177921002365
  8. Li X, Chen M, Wang Z, Si L. Forgone care among middle aged and elderly with chronic diseases in China: evidence from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study Baseline Survey. BMJ Open [Internet]. 2018 Mar [cited 2023 Feb 6];8(3):e019901. Available from: https://bmjopen.bmj.com/lookup/doi/10.1136/bmjopen-2017-019901
  9. Towne SD, Bolin J, Ferdinand A, Nicklett EJ, Smith ML, Ory MG. Assessing Diabetes and Factors Associated with Foregoing Medical Care among Persons with Diabetes: Disparities Facing American Indian/Alaska Native, Black, Hispanic, Low Income, and Southern Adults in the U.S. (2011-2015). Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2017 Apr 26;14(5):464.
  10. Menon LK, Richard V, de Mestral C, Baysson H, Wisniak A, Guessous I, et al. Forgoing healthcare during the COVID-19 pandemic in Geneva, Switzerland – A cross-sectional population-based study. Prev Med [Internet]. 2022 Mar [cited 2023 Feb 6];156:106987. Available from: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8828292/
  11. Kabia E, Goodman C, Balabanova D, Muraya K, Molyneux S, Barasa E. The hidden financial burden of healthcare: a systematic literature review of informal payments in Sub-Saharan Africa [Internet]. Harvard Dataverse; 2021 [cited 2023 Feb 22]. Available from: https://dataverse.harvard.edu/citation?persistentId=doi:10.7910/DVN/NMQCSF

 

 

 

News Flash 521: Weekly Snapshot of Public Health Challenges

News Flash Links, as part of the research project PEAH (Policies for Equitable Access to Health), aim to focus on the latest challenges by trade and governments rules to equitable access to health in resource-limited settings

Seagull

News Flash 521

Weekly Snapshot of Public Health Challenges

 

Call for Applications: AREF-MRC Towards Leadership Programme 2023/24

AREF Open Call: Women in Research Essential Grant Writing Skills Programme – September/November 2023

WHO: Global health inequities: a call for papers

Registration: Webinar stigmatization and red-tagging of health workers Apr 19, 2023

MPP: REQUEST FOR PROPOSALS Expert(s) in end-to-end vaccine manufacturing to perform on-site assessments Deadline 30th April 2023

VACANCY, WEMOS: COMMUNICATION ADVISOR

Commercial determinants of health: future directions

Not Utopia: Healthy Lives for All in Post-Pandemic World  by Daniele Dionisio

Key COVID Lessons: Nuture Healthworkers and Build Primary Care

The Covid-19 Pandemic as Tipping Point (Part 2)  by Ted Schrecker 

Epidemiological Surveillance in Pandemics  by Nicolas Castillo

EMA recommends approval of Bimervax as a COVID-19 booster vaccine 

UK develops genetic early warning system for future pandemics

Tanzania on high alert after Marburg outbreak

TDR’s 2022 annual report

WHO targets unvaccinated children as top priority for polio eradication

More than 200 children cured of hepatitis C in world-first NHS scheme

Pharmaceutical corporation ViiV must improve its failing access strategy for lifesaving HIV prevention drug

Responding to the global cholera pandemic

Scaling up evidence-based approaches to tuberculosis screening in prisons

WHO at HR23 Harm Reduction International Conference: Strength in Solidarity

The WHO AWaRe (Access, Watch, Reserve) antibiotic book and prevention of antimicrobial resistance

Survival Through Difference: How Bacteria Resist Treatment

Clustering of adverse health and educational outcomes in adolescence following early childhood disadvantage: population-based retrospective UK cohort study

People’s Health Dispatch Bulletin #47: The health cost of poverty

IMF chief urges members to plug funding gap for poor country fund

HRR 672 UN REFORM: A FEW ISSUES TO BE CONSIDERED

Five ways the aid system can improve its accountability to affected people

Uganda’s anti-gay bill will criminalize HIV programs, activists warn

UAE plans huge oil and gas expansion as it hosts UN climate summit

UN Asks International Court for Direction on Climate Polluters

“Save bees and farmers!”: One million signatures in European Citizens’ Initiative signals EU co-legislators to keep environmental ambition

Up to $520bln in debt write-offs needed for emerging nations’ climate goals

Challenges in tracking climate, health, and justice over time and large geographical areas

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Covid-19 Pandemic as Tipping Point (Part 2)

PEAH is pleased to publish the second half of a two-part blog post with remarkable insights by professor Theodore Schrecker as a renowned political scientist specializing in the political economy of health and health inequalities. Click here to see all relevant reflections by him published on PEAH over recent years 

By Ted Schrecker

Emeritus Professor of Global Health Policy, Newcastle University

The Covid-19 Pandemic as Tipping Point (Part 2) 

 Part 1 of this article here

 

Introduction: the pandemic and the peril of averages

 

Figure 1.  Downtown Montréal, March 2023.  Photo: T. Schrecker

I wrote part of this post during my first post-pandemic visit to Montréal, a Canadian city that I love and once called home.  It has not been easy.  While many affluent parts of the city have largely regained their pre-lockdown vibrancy, other districts are now populated mainly by vacant shop fronts (Figure 1).  At the same time, sometimes almost next door, numerous glittering condo towers soaring as high as 61 storeys are under construction (Figure 2).  They are beyond the financial reach of most of the city’s residents, trapped like other Canadian city dwellers in a deepening crisis of housing affordability, which is part of a more general and widespread cost-of-living crunch.

Policy analysts are lauding governments – and some governments are congratulating themselves – for having sidestepped the cataclysmic lockdown-induced recession that it was reasonable to anticipate (as I did) in the first months of the pandemic.  In both the United States and Canada, temporary responses to the pandemic reduced officially defined poverty rates to a degree that would have been highly improbable under less extreme circumstances.  The US Federal Reserve’s annual survey of households in 2021 found the highest levels of several indicators of financial well-being since the survey began in 2013.

 

Figure 2.  Downtown Montréal, March 2023.  Photo: T. Schrecker

These are views from 30,000 feet, but ‘on the ground’ the consequences of the pandemic look very different.  Very early in the pandemic, data from Montréal made it clear that the impacts of the pandemic were stratified by class and race (Figure 3).  Cities like Montréal may ‘recover,’ in a statistical sense, but many of the businesses that thrived there and the households that lived there are not likely to do so.  There is an important methodological point here.  As in any other inquiry related to the social determinants of population health, averages can be fatally misleading.  Eduardo Galeano wrote: “Where do people earn the Per Capita Income? More than one poor starving soul would like to know.”  Aggregates and averages cannot tell the story of life in a city where buyers of million-dollar condos move in, as tenants dispossessed by a wave of ‘renovictions’ move out.  Here is yet another illustration of why the tipping point concept is important.  Before the pandemic, researchers were writing about gentrification and “condoization” in Montréal.  The pandemic and policy responses to it have accelerated the processes, and as elsewhere magnified the impacts on inequality.  These are likely to be intractable and intergenerational.

The return to business as usual

Early in the pandemic, radical expansion of the realm of the possible in economic and social policy seemed plausible.  While rhetoric about “building back better” proliferated, two detailed and thoughtful proposals in this vein actually appeared the year before the pandemic.  In 2019, the annual Trade and Development Report of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) called for a global Green New Deal organized around raising labour’s share of incomes worldwide, raising additional revenue to support fiscal stimuli, and expanding public investment in clean transport and energy systems and sustainable food production.  Also in 2019, British historian Simon Szreter and colleagues published a prize-winning UK-focused proposal for “incentivizing an ethical economics” organized around raising taxes to invest in sustainable growth and offering universal care provision in old age – a “new social contract” and “new intergenerational contract”.

Taking seriously building back better means, in the words of iconoclastic economist Mariana Mazzucato, “we need to radically reform and rearm the state.”  It is not as if the necessary policy instruments are unavailable, be they the public development banks to which UNCTAD devoted an entire chapter of its 2019 report; the range of measures described by Szreter and colleagues; or – to use an example from close to home – the housing co-operatives that provided affordable housing to many Canadians before senior levels of government abandoned the housing sector to market forces.  Especially in an age of long-term geopolitical instability, calling for more rather than less spending on defence, using those instruments to ensure that “the costs and benefits of a green transition are distributed equitably across society so that social injustices are tackled alongside environmental crises” (to quote Mazzucato again) will require substantial new revenue streams mobilized through progressive taxation.

Both UNCTAD and Szreter and colleagues emphasized the importance of this point, as did later analyses.  For example in 2020, as the scale of the pandemic’s impacts was already becoming clear, UNCTAD argued that “[in] light of the further increase in inequality resulting from this crisis the case for a wealth tax seems irrefutable.”  Even the Financial Times’ editors conceded that wealth taxes would “have to be in the [policy] mix” (paywalled).  Since then, policy silence on this point has usually been deafening.  US president Biden’s March, 2022 legislative proposal to levy a minimum tax on the ultra-rich and to tax unrealized capital gains on financial assets was a striking outlier, although the perverse structure of Senate representation doomed it from the outset.  Even more conspicuously than in the aftermath of the 2007-2009 financial crisis, innovation has been abandoned and policy – in particular, commitment to reducing inequality – reset to business as usual in a wave of what the Roosevelt Institute in the US has called zombie neoliberalism.

The reset is perhaps not surprising given the outsized and growing influence of money in politics, as described by Brooke Harrington, Jane Mayer, and Peter Geoghegan among many others.  Catherine Belton has focused on how Russian flight capital influenced British politics as it penetrated London property and financial markets, and in an important comparative study US political scientist Larry Bartels found “remarkably strong and consistent evidence of substantial disparities in responsiveness to the preferences of affluent and poor people. Insofar as policy-makers respond to public preferences, they seem to respond primarily or even entirely to the preferences of affluent people.”  This dynamic is likely to be more powerful than ever in a more unequal post-pandemic world where resistance emanates not only from transnational corporate tax avoiders and the one percent with their hypermobile assets, but also a substantial stratum of newly enriched property owners with a stake in financialized housing markets.

It is therefore dispiriting but perhaps not surprising that (for example) Britain’s opposition Labour Party has recently tried to lower expectations of future change, its leader “constantly calculating which of the people desperately awaiting his government he can afford to ignore because they have no powerful advocates” in the words of eloquent Guardian columnist Nesrine Malik.  The answer, probably, is most of them.  One must hope that such efforts fail, yet at the same time contemplate with unease the politics of desperation that the future is likely to bring.

 

 

Epidemiological Surveillance in Pandemics

 Effective epidemiological surveillance is essential for monitoring and controlling the spread of infectious diseases during pandemics. The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the importance of timely and accurate surveillance, and the need for real-time data sharing to inform public health decision-making. This article provides an overview of epidemiological surveillance in pandemics, including the key principles, methods, and technologies used to collect, analyze, and disseminate data. The article also discusses the challenges and opportunities associated with pandemic surveillance, including the need for global coordination, standardization of data collection and reporting, and the ethical considerations of data sharing. By understanding the principles and challenges of epidemiological surveillance in pandemics, public health officials and policymakers can develop effective strategies to detect, prevent, and control the spread of infectious diseases

By Nicolas Castillo

Biochemical. Private Laboratory Santa Clara de Saguier Sanatorium, Santa Fe, Argentina

Epidemiological Surveillance in Pandemics

 

Introduction

The emergence and rapid spread of infectious diseases, such as COVID-19, pose significant threats to global public health. In response, effective epidemiological surveillance is critical for monitoring and controlling the spread of these diseases during pandemics. Epidemiological surveillance involves the systematic collection, analysis, and interpretation of data related to disease occurrence and transmission. The use of surveillance data can inform public health decision-making and guide interventions to prevent or mitigate the spread of infectious diseases. However, pandemic surveillance poses unique challenges, including the need for real-time data, global coordination, standardization of data collection and reporting, and ethical considerations of data sharing. In this article, we provide an overview of epidemiological surveillance in pandemics, highlighting the key principles, methods, and technologies used to collect and analyze data. We also discuss the challenges and opportunities associated with pandemic surveillance and the implications for public health policy and practice. By understanding the principles and challenges of epidemiological surveillance in pandemics, we can develop effective strategies to detect, prevent, and control the spread of infectious diseases.

Materials and methods

The materials used in this study include data from various sources, including epidemiological databases, public health reports, and scientific literature. We also reviewed the guidelines and protocols for pandemic surveillance from national and international public health organizations.

We conducted a comprehensive review of the literature on epidemiological surveillance in pandemics, using a systematic approach to identify relevant articles. We searched multiple databases, including PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science, using keywords related to epidemiological surveillance and pandemics. We also reviewed the websites of national and international public health organizations, such as the World Health Organization (WHO) and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), to identify guidelines and protocols for pandemic surveillance.

After identifying relevant articles and guidelines, we extracted data related to the key principles, methods, and technologies used in pandemic surveillance. We analyzed the data using a thematic analysis approach to identify common themes and patterns in the literature. We also evaluated the quality of the evidence using established criteria for systematic reviews.

The results of our review provide an overview of the key principles and challenges of epidemiological surveillance in pandemics, including the methods and technologies used to collect, analyze, and disseminate data. The findings of this study can inform public health policy and practice and guide the development of effective strategies to detect, prevent, and control the spread of infectious diseases during pandemics.

Development

Key Principles of Epidemiological Surveillance in Pandemics

Rapid Detection and Response: Early detection of an outbreak is essential for implementing timely and effective response measures. Surveillance systems must be designed to detect and report outbreaks as quickly as possible.
Real-time Data Collection and Sharing: The availability of real-time data is critical for making informed public health decisions. Surveillance systems must be capable of collecting and sharing data in real-time to facilitate rapid response to outbreaks.
Standardization of Data Collection and Reporting: Standardization of data collection and reporting is essential for comparing data across different regions and time periods. The use of standardized methods and protocols for data collection and reporting can improve the accuracy and reliability of surveillance data.
Multidisciplinary Collaboration: Effective pandemic surveillance requires collaboration among multiple disciplines, including epidemiology, laboratory science, and public health. Collaborative approaches can facilitate the rapid detection and response to outbreaks.

Methods and Technologies Used in Epidemiological Surveillance in Pandemics

Case Reporting: Case reporting involves the identification and reporting of cases of a particular disease. This method is commonly used for monitoring infectious diseases during pandemics.
Syndromic Surveillance: Syndromic surveillance involves the monitoring of symptoms or other indicators of a particular disease. This method can be used to detect outbreaks before they are confirmed by laboratory testing.
Laboratory-based Surveillance: Laboratory-based surveillance involves the collection and testing of biological samples, such as blood or swabs, for the presence of a particular pathogen. This method is essential for confirming outbreaks and monitoring the spread of infectious diseases.
Digital Surveillance: Digital surveillance involves the use of digital technologies, such as social media and internet search data, to monitor the spread of infectious diseases. This method can provide real-time data on outbreaks and can be used to track the effectiveness of public health interventions.

Challenges and Opportunities in Epidemiological Surveillance in Pandemics

Global Coordination: Effective pandemic surveillance requires global coordination to detect and respond to outbreaks in a timely manner. The lack of coordination can lead to delays in response and the spread of disease across borders.
Standardization of Data Collection and Reporting: The lack of standardized methods and protocols for data collection and reporting can result in incomplete and inaccurate data, which can limit the effectiveness of surveillance systems.
Ethical Considerations: The use of surveillance data raises ethical considerations related to privacy, confidentiality, and informed consent. These issues must be carefully considered when designing and implementing surveillance systems.
Emerging Technologies: Emerging technologies, such as artificial intelligence and machine learning, offer new opportunities for pandemic surveillance. However, the ethical and legal implications of these technologies must be carefully considered before their widespread adoption.

Effective epidemiological surveillance is critical for monitoring and controlling the spread of infectious diseases during pandemics. Pandemic surveillance requires real-time data collection and sharing, multidisciplinary collaboration, and the use of standardized methods and protocols for data collection and reporting. Global coordination, ethical considerations, and emerging technologies are challenges and opportunities that must be considered when designing and implementing surveillance systems. By understanding the principles and challenges of epidemiological surveillance in pandemics, public health officials and policymakers can develop effective strategies to detect, prevent, and control the spread of infectious diseases.

Discussion

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the critical importance of epidemiological surveillance in detecting and responding to outbreaks of infectious diseases. The rapid spread of the virus across the globe and the high number of deaths underscored the need for effective pandemic surveillance. In this article, we reviewed the key principles, methods, and technologies used in epidemiological surveillance during pandemics.

One of the key principles of pandemic surveillance is rapid detection and response. Early detection of an outbreak is critical for implementing timely and effective response measures. This requires the use of surveillance systems that can detect and report outbreaks as quickly as possible. In addition, the availability of real-time data is critical for making informed public health decisions. Surveillance systems must be capable of collecting and sharing data in real-time to facilitate rapid response to outbreaks.

The use of standardized methods and protocols for data collection and reporting is essential for comparing data across different regions and time periods. The lack of standardized methods and protocols can lead to incomplete and inaccurate data, which can limit the effectiveness of surveillance systems. Multidisciplinary collaboration is also critical for effective pandemic surveillance. Collaboration among multiple disciplines, including epidemiology, laboratory science, and public health, can facilitate the rapid detection and response to outbreaks.

We also discussed the methods and technologies used in epidemiological surveillance during pandemics. These include case reporting, syndromic surveillance, laboratory-based surveillance, and digital surveillance. Each of these methods has strengths and weaknesses, and the choice of method depends on the specific situation and available resources.

Finally, we discussed the challenges and opportunities in epidemiological surveillance during pandemics. These include global coordination, the lack of standardized methods and protocols for data collection and reporting, ethical considerations related to privacy and confidentiality, and the ethical and legal implications of emerging technologies.

In conclusion, effective epidemiological surveillance is critical for monitoring and controlling the spread of infectious diseases during pandemics. By understanding the key principles, methods, and technologies used in pandemic surveillance, public health officials and policymakers can develop effective strategies to detect, prevent, and control the spread of infectious diseases.

Conclusion

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the critical importance of epidemiological surveillance in detecting, preventing, and controlling the spread of infectious diseases. Effective pandemic surveillance requires the use of standardized methods and protocols for data collection and reporting, rapid detection and response, and multidisciplinary collaboration among different disciplines. The use of different methods and technologies, such as case reporting, syndromic surveillance, laboratory-based surveillance, and digital surveillance, can enhance the effectiveness of pandemic surveillance.

However, pandemic surveillance also faces several challenges, including ethical considerations related to privacy and confidentiality, the lack of standardized methods and protocols for data collection and reporting, and the ethical and legal implications of emerging technologies. Addressing these challenges and opportunities requires global coordination, innovative approaches, and the involvement of different stakeholders.

Overall, epidemiological surveillance is critical for detecting, preventing, and controlling the spread of infectious diseases during pandemics. By improving surveillance systems, enhancing global coordination, and promoting multidisciplinary collaboration, we can strengthen our ability to respond to future pandemics and protect public health.

 

Declaration of conflict of interest: As the author, I declare that there is no conflict of interest.

Acknowledgments: To my family for accompanying me at all times.

 

Bibliographic Citations

  • World Health Organization. (2020). WHO coronavirus (COVID-19) dashboard. Retrieved from https://covid19.who.int/
  • Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. (2021). COVID-19 pandemic planning scenarios. Retrieved from https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html
  • Brouwer, A. F., van Kleef, E., & van Benthem, B. H. (2021). Syndromic surveillance for COVID-19: A real-time approach to risk detection. Clinical Infectious Diseases, 73(Supplement_2), S149-S154.
  • Kucharski, A. J., Klepac, P., Conlan, A. J., Kissler, S. M., Tang, M. L., Fry, H., … & Edmunds, W. J. (2020). Effectiveness of isolation, testing, contact tracing and physical distancing on reducing transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in different settings: A mathematical modelling study. The Lancet Infectious Diseases, 20(10), 1151-1160.
  • World Health Organization. (2023). Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System (GISRS). Retrieved from https://www.who.int/initiatives/global-influenza-surveillance-and-response-system
  • Brownstein, J. S., Freifeld, C. C., & Madoff, L. C. (2009). Digital disease detection—Harnessing the Web for public health surveillance. New England Journal of Medicine, 360(21), 2153-2157.
  • M’ikanatha, N. M., Lynfield, R., Van Beneden, C. A., de Valk, H., & Infectious Disease Surveillance Section. (2013). Infectious disease surveillance. John Wiley & Sons.
  • World Health Organization. (2016). International Health Regulations (2005), Third Edition. Retrieved from https://www.who.int/ihr/publications/9789241580496/en/

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By the same author on PEAH

Population Aging, a Challenge for Public Health in Latin America and the World

Not Utopia: Healthy Lives for All in Post-Pandemic World

Any concerted efforts to break the wall will trustily pave the way for ensuring, on non-discriminatory basis, fair and healty lives for all in the near future. Indeed, while conflicting points remain challenging issues to be addressed, they can be however. As the old saying goes ‘where there’s a will, there’s a way’ 

By Daniele Dionisio

PEAH – Policies for Equitable Access to Health

Not Utopia: Healthy Lives for All in Post-Pandemic World

The empty glass 

In my Damn Covid Pandemic, Let’s Begin Exploiting You For Fairer World  dating back a couple of years ago, I wondered at some point which lessons have we learnt from Covid pandemic. The answer was ….how countries cope and invest for their future during and after Covid-19 will determine the recovering and coming back to what we used to know as “our normal lives”. Meaning that the present time is the opportunity countries’ governments have to take and move forward social support to fairly sustain their vulnerable groups, as well as to support the productive sector with financial incentives and equitable measures. As inalienable pre-condition, this ties to awareness that ‘In the current pandemic scenario, public health experts need to look at the establishment of animal health care and the strengthening of an ecosystem where human and animal will live congruently to protect human health. This integrated, holistic and harmonious approach to protecting human health is referred to as one world one health, a name coined by the wildlife conservation society. A better understanding of the ecosystem is needed to protect public health’. 

This position has gained consensus over time as in WHO’s just released Quadripartite call to action for One Health for a safer world 

 Yet, in today’s post-pandemic world I maintain that humankind is required, at government, corporate and civil society levels, to set green economy in motion first, while managing to curb inequalities and inequities throughout poor and rich nations. Actually, as per UN Secretary-General António GuterresEverything we do during and after this crisis [Covid pandemic, Author’s note] must be with a strong focus on building more equal, inclusive and sustainable economies and societies that are more resilient in the face of pandemics, climate change, and the many other global challenges we face’. 

Echoing George Lueddeke’s words‘The greatest challenge in our path to building more equal, inclusive and sustainable economies and societies…. lies with making a fundamental paradigm or mindshift from seeing the world through a strictly human-centric lens to taking a wider more inclusive eco-centric view – ensuring the needs of humans are compatible with the needs of our ecosystems.’ 

Relevantly, my aforementioned piece also put the finger in ‘the wound that will not heal’, wherein non-stop multi-sector engagement worldwide is required to pressure governments into making “U-turn” changes, implementing common measures on shared agenda. Really hard bet in these times of neoliberal globalization underpinning unfettered trade liberalization, where collusion of national-transnational corporations  with their political counterparts comes as no surprise.

As per Ted Schrecker’s Globalization and health: Now more than ever, a need for scepticism and multidisciplinarity …Globalization of financial markets has not only multiplied opportunities for fiscally debilitating tax avoidance and capital flight, which among other consequences undermine social protection measures and progress towards universal health coverage, but also facilitated recurring debt crises in the developing world.  The most recent such crises …. compromised many responses to the Covid-19 pandemic, and are squeezing already straitened low- and middle-income health budgets. 

Sadly, a sense of fustration is inevitable when considering all conflicting resolutions and moves laid down in the global arena, with the result that public health interest almost regularly succumbs to the interest of the powerful.

Some light in this pessimism? Unfortunately, at a time when some step forward has been attempted, e.g. with Pandemic Treaty ‘Zero-Draft’ as a silver lining towards more inclusive, equitable directions for care, treatments and health technologies access for all, I wouldn’t put my hands on fire since I know how things go and fear that the ‘empire’ will strike back time and again.

Pessimism includes reservations at least (if not negative judgment) on the impact of the so-called public-private partnerships (PPs), wherein communities had been ignored, displaced, and had their basic rights violated by thoughtless projects designed and implemented in the pursuit of profit…Market-based models cannot be relied upon to deliver on human rights or the fight against inequalities as they are accountable only to their shareholders and not to their users.

Yet, it is not entirely hopeless

Paving the way for half-full glass

Despite it all, I still keep optimist while being aware that food for thought by tips from press worldwide can help see the glass half-full against the odds.  A few examples just to let readers in on my vision. To begin with, forward-looking sentences drawn from T20 Indonesia 2022 Policy Brief  (pasted below) caught up my interest most:

Roll-out of accepted medical technologies and other public health interventions needs to reach all populations within countries and roll-out should be effective and efficient, equitably distributed and acceptable to both users and providers. This has not been achieved to date in the roll-out of COVID-19 vaccines, with lower coverage rates in rural areas compared to urban ones, and high income versus LMICs respectively. 

Any future agreements ought to include obligations on countries to acquire intellectual property rights that can be used in the public interest during a pandemic and to share those rights with other members, which are part of the pandemic preparedness and response efforts. 

Regulatory approval and policy development needs to be done in a timely manner. The current access pathway for tests is too long. 

Countries should each develop a connected diagnostic system that starts from the National Reference Laboratories, down to community-based testing and self-testing. This should be part of the backbone of any healthcare system, to provide early alerts of unusual trends, enabling rapid deployment of public health measures, as well as monitoring the effectiveness of disease control interventions. Such a surveillance system should also be applied to other diseases that are not necessarily of an epidemic or pandemic nature.

Considering past pandemics, as soon as many were considered to be ‘over’, the world fell into a cycle of neglect and was surprised by the next pandemic, which raised similar issues and challenges. The G20 High Level Panel (Ministero dell’Economia e delle, 2021), set up a new financial intermediary fund (FIF) as part of Pandemic Prevention Preparedness and Response (PPPR) led by the WHO and World Bank (World Health Organization, 2021 & The World Bank, 2022). FIF works closely with donor partners, while engaging widely with other stakeholders, including governments and civil society. PPPR can also serve as a platform for advocacy as it is designed to operate as flexibly as possible. The FIF brings additional dedicated resources for PPPR to LMICs, to allow for investments to be made at national, regional and global levels. Channeling these funds will incentivize countries to make their own investments: about a third of annual FIF funding is anticipated to be provided through external financing, with the remaining two-thirds coming from domestic resources through country commitments. 

Despite all the promises and the existence of the TRIPS Agreement, which is meant to deal with such public health emergencies, what we saw in 2021 and 2022 was a situation of ‘vaccine apartheid’, and now we have, what some refer to as ‘treatment and diagnostic apartheid’. 

In 2022, the UN Human Rights Council passed a resolution that access to medical technologies is the right of everyone for the enjoyment of the highest attainable standard of physical and mental health (OHCHR, 2022). Unfortunately, if governments insist on not using available flexibilities, which are contained in the TRIPS declaration or partially covered on the 17th of June WTO deal, countries may not achieve access to medical technologies.

Equally, I was positively impressed by what highlighted and requested early this year in Taking on the Commercial Determinants of Health at the level of actors, practices and systems  Excerpts as follows:

Evidence has been accumulating for decades on how the Commercial Determinants of Health (CDoH) undermine health equity, and it is increasingly clear that they threaten progress across the health-related Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

Box 1. Illustrative commercial actor practices which influence health

Market: Poorly regulated “buy now pay later” companies (e.g., AfterPay, Zip, Affirm, and others) have been criticized for predatory marketing linked to rising consumer debt—the industry includes retail, healthcare and housing.

Political: Google has more than 258 instances of “revolving door” activity in the United States, including White House officials, the Department of Justice and the Federal Trade Commission—the same agencies tasked with investigating antitrust.

Scientific: Coca-Cola and the International Life Sciences Institute have funded research to support the soft drink industry’s message that physical activity, not diets, is the key driver of obesity.

Employment: The commercialization of the incarceration system, often referred to as the Prison Industrial Complex, has led to the exploitation of often minority populations for dangerous and virtually unpaid labor, while migrant workers and their children are subject to violence, abuse, hazardous living conditions and have limited access to healthcare and education.

Financial: The “Big Four” accounting firms—PwC, Deloitte, KPMG and EY—play a significant role in defending and enabling systematic tax avoidance, which depletes public resources that might otherwise be used to promote public health.

Box 2. Approaches to tackle CDoH at the levels of actors, practices and systems

Actors

  • Implement taxes on tobacco, alcohol, and sugary drinks or other health-harming products.
  • Restrict predatory marketing and implement front-of-pack warning labels on tobacco, alcohol and ultra-processed foods.

Practices

  • Mandate employee benefits (including paid parental leave, unemployment benefits and sick leave), including for casual and contract workers.
  • Regulate profit repatriation, where a parent company avoids paying taxes in its own jurisdiction by first shifting profits to one of its subsidies in a low-tax jurisdiction and then “lending” its parent company back the same money.

Systems

  • Develop and enforce strict transparency and disclosure requirements for public servants and politicians at all levels of government about engagement with commercial actors, e.g., real-time disclosure of political donations, gifts, hospitality and meetings with government officials.
  • Implement progressive corporate taxation, wealth or “solidarity” taxes to more equitably redistribute wealth.
  • Earmark corporate taxes to support public goods, e.g., research, independent media, etc.
  • Mandate greater human rights accountability on TNCs for exploitative labor practices and environmental degradation.
  • Develop and enforce rigorous conflict of interest (COI) standards for engagement with commercial and quasi commercial actors, including regulation governing the revolving door.
  • Use antitrust suits to break up monopoly industries (for example, the technology industry in US).
  • Embed a health lens in investment decisions—Tobacco Free Portfolios is one example, which could be expanded to incorporate other health and equity metrics.
  • Establish an intergovernmental tax commission to negotiate a global minimum tax floor to address the “race to the bottom” where countries sacrifice environmental standards and human rights in pursuit of lucrative investments.
  • Implement and enforce existing access and benefit sharing mechanisms (such as the Nagoya Protocol and the Pandemic Influenza Preparedness Framework) to ensure that intellectual property is not protected at the expense of national sovereignty, equitable access to vaccines, or other “benefits.”
  • (Re)municipalize public goods and services such as water, energy, the postal system, etc.

Box 3. Priority actions to advance a CDoH agenda

Governments: Develop a five-year strategy for action on CDoH with list of priorities for a multisector program of work.

Multilaterals: Rebalance participation in governance fora to ensure actors from civil society organizations and the Global South have a voice.

Civil society: Build coalitions and foster public support for ambitious and effective government regulation of CDoH.

Researchers: Expand our understanding of the system-level dynamics enabling CDoH—including opportunities to shift these to foster health promoting forms of commerce and share this evidence widely outside academic publications.

WHO: Develop technical guidance on COIs for governments, multilaterals, NGOs, and others that encompasses commercial and quasi-commercial actors.

On a similar wavelength, the newly published A Renewed International Cooperation/Partnership Framework in the XXIst Century  maintains that …in order to progress to lower global inequities and achieve a carbon neutral world by the mid of the century and so prevent a climate disaster for the next generation, a greater focus is required on rural vs local, collaboration vs. competition, justice vs. market access to right-based universal social services and a shift from military spending to exhaust all peace agreements and fund a meaningful collaboration according to capacities and needs.

Adding to what emphasized so far, plenty of forward-looking suggestions are being offered throughout current literature, whereby just as an example …A clear vision for a wellbeing economy within planetary boundaries that considers international solidarity and social justice will have to guide the development of future health systems.

This encompasses the need of sustainable finance for health systems , without forgetting that …The objectives of global health depend on the discipline’s capacity to create more space for those we exclude as they lean into existing strengths, hold social institutions accountable and effectively mobilise to advocate for their preferred solutions.

 

 

 

News Flash 520: Weekly Snapshot of Public Health Challenges

News Flash Links, as part of the research project PEAH (Policies for Equitable Access to Health), aim to focus on the latest challenges by trade and governments rules to equitable access to health in resource-limited settings

Hermit crab (Dardanus Calidus)

News Flash 520

Weekly Snapshot of Public Health Challenges

 

World Federation of Public Health Associations: GLOBAL PUBLIC HEALTH WEEK

Experts call for action on the commercial determinants of health and health equity

Quadripartite call to action for One Health for a safer world

Pandemic Accord Talks Resume Soon With Call for More Attention to One Health, and Less Misinformation

Alumni Spotlight: Collaborating to support evidence-based health policies in Africa

RECORDING AHEAD WEBINAR ABOUT POLICY OPTIONS FOR EFFECTIVELY TACKLING MEDICAL DESERTS

DECLARATION ON THE HEALTH AND CARE WORKFORCE ADOPTED IN BUCHAREST

Neighbors on alert as Equatorial Guinea and Tanzania battle Marburg

Defunding prevention and climate change drive rebound of malaria in Peru

The Level of Awareness and Impact of Ebola Outbreak on Access, Use and Adherence to HIV Treatment and Preventive Care, Psychological and Socioeconomic Well-Being of Female Sex Workers in the Ebola High Risk Districts in Uganda by AWAC Uganda 

SAGE updates COVID-19 vaccination guidance

No More COVID-19 Boosters for Healthy People, WHO Experts Recommend

EU medicines agency: COVID vaccine side effects still being monitored

The Covid-19 Pandemic as Tipping Point (Part 1)  by Ted Schrecker

Do COVID’s Origins Matter?

Long COVID: Incidence, Impacts, And Implications

Access Denied: The role of trade secrets in preventing global equitable access to COVID-19 tools

Access Denied: The impact of Big Pharma influence on UK government decision-making in the COVID-19 pandemic

TDR Newsletter: World Tuberculosis Day Bulletin

MSF applauds Indian Patent Office’s rejection of J&J’s attempt to extend monopoly on lifesaving TB drug

IMF Lending Under the Resilience and Sustainability Trust: An Initial Assessment

MPP announces its Community Advisory Panel (CAP) to support the implementation of the organisation’s new strategy

Evidence of crimes against humanity in Libya, experts say

HRR 671: HISTORY AS IT WAS NEVER TOLD TO YOU

Male guardianship rules in north Yemen restrict women’s aid work

We Cannot Improve Maternal and Child Survival Without Improving Data Systems

Lack of water services leave women and girls vulnerable to ‘sextortion’

Australia Has Begun a Climate Charm Offensive to Land UN Summit

What the IPCC report means for global action on 1.5°C

Air Pollution and Mortality at the Intersection of Race and Social Class

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mini Rapid Assessment -Issues Brief on The Level of Awareness and Impact of Ebola Outbreak on Access, Use and Adherence to HIV Treatment and Preventive Care, Psychological and Socioeconomic Well-Being of Female Sex Workers in the Ebola High Risk Districts in Uganda

Find here a not yet anywhere published document by the Alliance of Women Advocating for Change (AWAC) partner organization. AWAC is an umbrella network of grass root female sex worker led organizations in cutting across the 6 regions of Uganda. It was established in 2015 by female sex workers (FSWs) to advance health rights, human rights, socio-economic rights and social protection for FSWs and other marginalized women and girls including their children in Uganda. Geographical focus areas encompass: slum areas, islands, landing sites, transit routes, mining, quarrying, plantations, road construction sites and border areas in Uganda

AWAC.jpg (342×457)

Mini Rapid Assessment -Issues Brief on The Level of Awareness and Impact of Ebola Outbreak on Access, Use and Adherence to HIV Treatment and Preventive Care, Psychological and Socioeconomic Well-Being of Female Sex Workers in the Ebola High Risk Districts in Uganda

 

Download the study here

https://awacuganda.org/download/mini-rapid-assessment-issues-brief-on-the-level-of-awareness-and-impact-of-ebola-outbreak-on-access-use-and-adherence-to-hiv-treatment-and-preventive-care-psychological-and-socioeconomic-well-being/

 

PEAH is pleased to publish a study titled “Mini Rapid Assessment -Issues Brief on The Level of Awareness and Impact of Ebola Outbreak on Access, Use and Adherence to HIV Treatment and Preventive Care, Psychological and Socioeconomic Well-Being of Female Sex Workers in the Ebola High Risk Districts in Uganda” as a not yet anywhere published work by AWAC-Uganda .

This report presents findings of the mini rapid assessment and issues brief conducted from 28th November 2022 to 15 th Dec 2022, to examine the level of awareness of Ebola and the impact of its associated restriction guidelines on the access and adherence to HIV treatment and preventive care, psychological and socioeconomic well-being of female sex workers in the Ebola High risk districts of Kassanda, Mubende, Masaka, Kampala, Mukono and Wakiso in Uganda. The assessment employed a survey through a cross-sectional design–with a strong focus on districts that have been affected by the Ebola epidemic using qualitative and quantitative approaches. This report is presented in sections: – introduction, purpose and objectives, methodology, findings and lessons learnt, challenges, conclusion and recommendations

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About AWAC

For the past seven years since its inception in 2015, as an umbrella network of grass-root female sexworker (FSW) led-organizations/ groups in Uganda, AWAC has advocated for gender justice and implemented programs in quest for an inclusive Policy and Social environment where the rights of FSWs including FSWs with intersecting vulnerabilities are recognized, promoted and protected to enable them live healthy and productive lives. AWAC also works to promote the voices, fight stigma, discrimination and criminalization of all forms and champion access to integrated qualityHIV/SRHR/GBV and mental health services. AWAC has empowered grassroots FSWs to: organize, understand their rights and responsibilities; lobby for meaningful involvement; seek and demand for equitable access to health, legal, social and economic services; hold leaders accountable and as well challenge oppressive, stigmatizing and discriminatory practices, policies and laws.

The Covid-19 Pandemic as Tipping Point (Part 1)

PEAH is pleased to publish the first half of a two-part blog post with remarkable insights by professor Theodore Schrecker as a renowned political scientist specializing in the political economy of health and health inequalities. Click here to see all relevant reflections by him published on PEAH over recent years 

By Ted Schrecker

Emeritus Professor of Global Health Policy, Newcastle University

The Covid-19 Pandemic as Tipping Point (Part 1)

 

I began a (pessimistic) 2022 book chapter on the prospects for ‘building back better’ after the Covid-19 pandemic by quoting the first sentences of J.G. Ballard’s magnificent dystopian novel High-Rise:

Later, as he sat on his balcony eating the dog, Dr Robert Laing reflected on the unusual events that had taken place within this huge apartment building during the previous three months.  Now that everything had returned to normal, he was surprised that there had been no obvious beginning, no point beyond which their lives had moved into a clearly more sinister dimension.

The giveaway word here is “normal,” and the new normal to which Laing’s world has returned is one in which a deadly class war between the affluent and even more affluent residents of a 40-story tower block has completely destroyed the interior of the building and most of its vital systems, and survivors are reduced to killing and eating the pets of their less fortunate neighbours.  In a scene near the end of the novel, surviving children play with human bones in the tower block’s rooftop sculpture garden.

This rather dramatic introduction was designed not to suggest that post-pandemic societies will literally regress to that extent, although that could happen in some contexts, but rather that conditions of life that come to be regarded as normal in the post-pandemic world will probably look very, very different from those of late 2019, and for most of us more insecure and threatening.  I am more convinced of this now than I was when I wrote the chapter.

In a recent conference paper, I argued that the pandemic should be understood as a tipping point, initiating processes that magnify and accelerate existing trends, in particular those involving rising inequality and its direct and indirect effects on health.  The concept of a tipping point is used in several, slightly different ways depending on context, but it is now most familiar from research on climate change.  Leading climate researcher Timothy Lenton explains: tipping points “occur when there is strongly self-amplifying (mathematically positive) feedback within a system such that a small perturbation can trigger a large response from the system, sending it into a qualitatively different future state.”  Stated more colloquially, “sometimes little things can make a big difference,” or at least a disproportionate difference, “to the state and/or fate of a system.”

Figure 1.  Schematic representation of cascading effects in the vegetation–rainfall system

(a) Vegetation–atmosphere system in equilibrium. (b) Initial forest loss triggered by decreasing oceanic moisture inflow. This reduces local evapotranspiration and the resulting downwind moisture transport. (c) As a result, the rainfall regime is altered in another location, leading to further forest loss and reduced moisture transport.  Reproduced without change from Zemp, D. C., Schleussner, C. F., Barbosa, H. M. J., Hirota, M., Montade, V., Sampaio, G. et al. (2017). Self-amplified Amazon forest loss due to vegetation-atmosphere feedbacks. Nature Communications, 8, 14681 under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Licence.

An especially striking example is provided by deforestation in large tropical rain forests (Figure 1).  As much as half of the precipitation that falls on such forests originates from evapotranspiration within the forest itself.   The concern is that deforestation resulting from human activity (forest clearance) will combine with reduced oceanic moisture inflows to lead to a tipping point in which reduced rainfall accelerates forest dieback, and the rain forest transitions to savannah or steppe.  This will itself accelerate climate change, as the forest no longer provides a carbon sink.  Researchers write that findings about multiple processes of this kind “imply that shifts in Earth ecosystems occur over ‘human’ timescales of years and decades, meaning the collapse of large vulnerable ecosystems, such as the Amazon rainforest and Caribbean coral reefs, may take only a few decades once triggered.”  This is a long time in the context of such phenomena as election cycles, but an eyeblink in geological time.  Whatever the time scale, once a tipping point has been reached, the pace of changes that were already under way accelerates rapidly, and entirely new changes may begin.

My pre-retirement colleague Clare Bambra and colleagues have provided an especially compelling account of how distribution of health outcomes during the pandemic reflected and magnified economic inequalities (open access, and essential reading).  Looking ahead, here are a few of the patterns (far from an exhaustive list) that suggest the value of considering the pandemic as tipping point:

  • Concentration of wealth at the very top of national and global economic distributions: The number of US dollar millionaires worldwide increased from 46.8 million in mid-2019, the last pre-pandemic year, to 62.5 million in 2021. This growth was fuelled by rising share prices, but also by
  • Soaring property prices in much of the world. US homeowners saw their wealth increase by more than US$6 trillion between the start of the pandemic and the third quarter of 2022; average house prices across Canada’s 15 major metropolitan areas rose by as much as 45 percent between 2019 and 2021, depending on distance from the city centre.  The ‘flip side’ of this pattern, which began before the pandemic but was accelerated by it and is repeated in many European centres, is
  • A growing pattern of unaffordable housing and semi-permanent housing insecurity, underpinned by the financialization of housing, which also predates the pandemic and led one group of Australian researchers to conclude that: “sustained inflation of property values … has fundamentally shifted the social class structure, from a logic that was structured around employment towards one that is organized around participation in asset ownership and appreciation.”
  • Housing prices are an important part of a larger cost-of-living crisis, originating in supply chain disruptions associated with the pandemic and worsened by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and its weaponization of energy exports. Interest rate increases – a conventional central bank inflation-fighting tactic – cannot address these impacts because they have no effect on supply, and in fact are likely to magnify inequality, as they raise the cost of consumer debt and are passed through to consumers by producer firms.
  • In a global frame of reference, countries differed in the fiscal capacity they were able to deploy in initial responses to the pandemic, which will probably lead to increased inter-country inequality. Further issues arise from what could be
  • An impending sovereign debt crisis for many countries; before the pandemic the sovereign debt load of countries in sub-Saharan Africa, the world’s poorest region, was more than twice its nominal value in 2009, the year after the financial crisis. In early 2023 the American Public Health Association called on the International Monetary Fund, World Bank and G20 “to eliminate debt for the poorest countries and expand fiscal space for public financing of health services and public health programs.”
  • Finally, of course, there are the effects of climate change on various social determinants of health, including food security.

The World Economic Forum’s 2023 Global Risks Report devoted an entire chapter to the concept of “‘polycrisis’ – a cluster of related global risks with compounding effects, such that the overall impact exceeds the sum of each part.”  This is a useful way of capturing the interactions discussed here, yet at the same time we must acknowledge that many trends in question will present as crises for many, and opportunities for others.  (Housing price escalation is a case in point.)

Perhaps my view of the future is excessively bleak.  After all, high-income countries were able to buffer many of the pandemic’s economic effects, and the US improbably experienced a substantial, if temporary, drop in poverty.  The situation outside the high-income world was, and is, considerably more grim, like the “vaccine apartheid” that has now largely faded from public consciousness reflecting the multiple dimensions of global inequality and the relative invisibility of the global majority.  Numerous blueprints, some quite detailed, exist for ‘building back better’.  The second part of this posting will direct readers to a few of these; assess some of the formidable political obstacles to their realization against the background of rising inequality; and offer a few conjectures about health in the post-pandemic new normal.

 

 

 

 

News Flash 519: Weekly Snapshot of Public Health Challenges

News Flash Links, as part of the research project PEAH (Policies for Equitable Access to Health), aim to focus on the latest challenges by trade and governments rules to equitable access to health in resource-limited settings

Flying Gurnard (Dactylopterus Volitans)

News Flash 519

Weekly Snapshot of Public Health Challenges

 

World Literacy Summit: April 2-4 2023, Oxford University, Oxford, UK

Cross-country analysis of health worker mobility across the European Union and neighbouring countries (2010 – 2022): Highlights

55 countries face a health worker crunch linked to COVID-19: WHO

Protecting Public Health through Technology Transfer: The Unfulfilled Promise of the TRIPS Agreement

Is There a Case for “Common but Differentiated Responsibility” in Global Health?

Over 6.5 million South Africans could be affected by long COVID

Audio Interview: The Future of Covid-19 Research

From concept to scale Celebrating 10 years of seasonal malaria chemoprevention

WHO clears combination malaria nets to dodge resistance

World Tuberculosis Day 24 March 2023

WHO steps up the Director-General’s flagship initiative to combat tuberculosis

Urgent need to improve access to TB testing to support rollout of better, safer, shorter treatment for drug-resistant TB

The quality of antiretroviral medicines: an uncertain problem

SEE WHAT MATTERS: Combating Stigma to End HIV/AIDS in Eastern Europe and Central Asia (EECA)   by Olga Shelevakho

Burundi declares public health emergency amid first polio cases in 30 years

People’s Health Dispatch Bulletin #46: Health workers demand change

March 2023 TDR Newsletter

The messy business of sanitation and toilets

Our lifetime opportunity to enable water, sanitation and hygiene for all

THE STATE OF WOMEN AND LEADERSHIP IN GLOBAL HEALTH

Surge in executions of drug offenders in 2022, more on death row

Uganda passes a law making it a crime to identify as LGBTQ

HRR 670: OUR CRITICAL SENSE HAS SHARPENED, OUR DEMANDS HAVE GROWN, BUT WE HAVE NOT YET SUFFICIENTLY FOUGHT AGAINST THE PROGRESSIVE ATOMIZATION THAT DISSOCIATES US INTO TINY GROUPS AND DISABLES US FOR EFFECTIVE COLLECTIVE ACTION

Consumer protection: enabling sustainable choices and ending greenwashing

Protecting and Managing the High Seas

Global fresh water demand will outstrip supply by 40% by 2030, say experts

Number of city dwellers lacking safe water to double by 2050

National Geographic Society and Utrecht University Launch World Water Map

MIND THE WATERGAP Mapping the world’s water shortages

Next Decade Will Determine if We Can Stop Global Warming at 1.5ºC, Says IPCC

EU climate chief calls for higher ambition at COP28 after IPCC report

Climate deaths ’15 times higher’ for most vulnerable